I am often puzzled by various ‘environmentalists.’ (I put the semi-quote marks around the word, since there are many types and variations among folks who either go by the designation or are called that by others.) All the various professionals, activists, academics, and even politicians (well politicians more than any others) go about their work meant to salvage one part of the Earth System or another with serious intent but insufficient urgency.
In many cases something seems to be missing. Half measures will not work and no individual can transform a system. Somehow, WE must transform the entire global system; no ‘green growth, no ‘greenwashing,’ no delusion of “decoupling” global economic growth from the pollution, climate chaos, and ecological damage it produces. But what is the average climate scientist, ecologist, or systems analyst to do? Many such individuals know what is wrong and do what they can, but individuals cannot resolve a global predicament.
How We See the World is a Poor Excuse for What We Do
I remember way back in college (well, I vaguely remember), a history professor was describing various theories about the trajectory of history. Some posited the idea that history repeats itself every so many decades or centuries. Others proposed that history waxes and wanes from one extreme to the other, then back again, on some dimension or other, endlessly. Then still others suggest that history evolves as a spiral, circular yes, but at ever higher levels each cycle. Then, of course there are those who see humanity on a course of endless development toward ever greater ‘progress.’ Each model, of course, had its critics as well as its devotees.
Which theory was right? Well, none of them really. But one thing most got wrong was the notion that the arrow of history they supported was inevitable. Now, of course, we could do a little semantic dance around that question. Was what happened inevitable? What about ‘coulda, shoulda, woulda? What about free will and determinism? Well, I look at free will and determinism much like my view of optimism and pessimism. They are excuses for not wanting to bother looking at the evidence and thinking things through. Some might think of these ‘positions’ as philosophical navel gazing. In any case, they don’t seem to me to have much use in coming to understand the world and decide what we need to do next.
Modern History Is At a Point of No Return
All sorts of things have happened in the past and some future events we project may look very much like them. Take the collapse of civilizations for example, have occurred numerous times in the past and are likely to happen again, and soon it seems.
Several very skilled researchers, such as Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, and even Arnold Toynbee, have explored in great depth all the factors that have led to the collapse of various civilizations in history. Certain patterns of behavior, especially by the elites, have often been very bad choices, considering the circumstances. It was Toynbee, I think, who said, “civilizations do not die by murder; they die by suicide.” (a paraphrase, actually.)
Well, some societies were probably ‘murdered’ by a conquering hoard, and some today look like they are at high risk of suffering from murder: Ukraine and Palestine come to mind. Nevertheless, if we are interested in the future of industrial civilization, those theories of history are not going to do us much good. If we look carefully at the evidence, which means look at all the evidence from several different sciences and from the trajectory of world events, what we see is, well, traumatic and terminal.
What historians used to call Western Civilization is now really the global political-economic empire of perpetual growth. A number of civilizations in the past have collapsed from overshooting the capacity of their ecosystems, which caused their collapse. Is there such a thing as ‘unintentional suicide’? All the verifiable evidence points to the fact that a complex adaptive system, such as today’s global political economy, bent on perpetual growth, must come to an end. Why? Because, when that system resides on a finite planet with not only limited resources—which industrial civilization rapidly consumes and turns to waste—but also a biosphere that is wholly dependent on the other subsystems that make up the complete Earth System.
Funny thing about large complex adaptive systems: they can adapt to change, but only so far. Furthermore, if one or more sub-systems is disturbed significantly, the consequence is not entirely predictable. We know that some effects will be felt in other subsystems but we don’t always know exactly how that will play out. Yet, our industrial modernists have no fear; they subscribe to a naïve theory of history as endless progress, defined by their unlimited desires for technological and financial expansion.
Whatever the pretentions of these self-styled ‘masters of the universe,’ the Davos Men and their political acolytes, complex systems do what they do and react to disruption in unpredictable ways. With enough disruption, various components begin to oscillate and destabilized to the point where their functions fail and failure cascades throughout the larger system leading to its collapse.
At a certain point, which some call a tipping point, complex systems begin to break down toward collapse. That is when it becomes almost impossible to stop the downward slide. World civilization is at or near that point right now. We have one slim chance to get it right.
No Do-Overs
Perhaps the most important thing to know about the collapse of civilizations is that there has never been, nor will there ever be a do over. No pretending the ball did not land in the rough and dropping it in a convenient spot on the fairway—like that infamous former president is reputed to have done so many times. Often, the way one plays a sport signals how s/he conducts business, fair play or not. But this is not a game. Every autocratic regime in history was the primary cause of its own demise.
However, as we experience the current great transformation of the Earth System and of the global political economy, despite the unpredictability of the details, we do know where we are headed, and not in a good way. We need to realize that there are no do-overs in the trajectory of history. That is why I sometimes wonder about people who go about their professional work as if whatever goes wrong can be done over tomorrow. No, there are no do-overs now. We have to get it right in responding to the one chance we have, and that chance is fading very fast.
Robert MacNeil Christie, Author 